Home sales in the Athens and Decatur Area weaken as we head into to the late fall and the upcoming holiday season. It is not uncommon for single family home sales to weaken this time of year as the Real Estate Market is a seasonal one.

However comparisons with last year’s results in a year-over-year comparison are not going to be very revealing, because unique factors are contributing to a none apples-to-apples comparison.  Let me explain …

Given the seasonality of real estate sales, generally a year-over-year comparison is a way to go about an apples-to-apples comparison that takes into account seasonality. Thus when comparing October 2010 results they indicate a -31% decline when compared to October 2009. On the surface this appears quite disturbing, but there is an explanation …

Last October was a very unseasonal month as you can see by viewing the chart above home sales were increasing somewhat dramatically. Very unique indeed given the time of year! However you may recall that last year at this time we were heading into the first time home buyers tax-credit expiration. First time home buyers to qualify for the tax credit had to purchase their first home by the end of November to qualify for up to $8,000 in tax credits. It was this incentive that drove last years market upward and now makes it a very non-seasonal comparison.

The dark blue moving average line in the above chart, gives us a much more accurate reflection of the local market’s behavior, and it is indicating a slow down of ~40% but not over a single year but over 4 years. Thus the downward trend in home sales in the local market is continuing its moderate downward direction. Will this winter reveal a market bottom? …

Will the market turn around and once again start growing? Well time will only tell so to keep abreast please feel free to subscribe to our local feed for regular updates, because we will let know …for sure …as soon as we do. Until next month …

- Jason

With so much bad news being tossed about in the national media regarding the changing Real Estate Industry, it is truly nice to have some good news to report about our local Athens / Decatur Housing Market.

August Home Sales within Athens and Decatur Alabama were up significantly over last month and the even better news was that the 163 transactions reported in August 2010 were up +19% when compared to 137 closings of August 2009, just 1 year ago.

The sales result data is really showing the potential of bottoming, after a 4 year downward trend. Note the dark blue 12 month moving average of Home Sales in the following chart; after a very clear 3 year decent, local Home Sales in the Decatur area have truly flattened over the last 14 months.

Moreover when looking at the Home Sales data across price ranges, as illustrated in the next chart below, we are not seeing any dynamic shift in market mix which gives some additional credibility to this month’s report.

Of course we don’t have the ability to predict market results into the future based on past performance, however the next 6 months represents the seasonally slow time for Real Estate Sales and if we remain above the lows of the past 2 years things will definitely be looking up, that’s for sure!

As always if you have any questions regarding the details of your favorite area and price range don’t hesitate to give me call 256-340-0004 or drop me an email and I will be glad to provide you some insight.

- Jason

While April, May, and June home sales in the Athens and Decatur Alabama areas were higher than normal, July 2010 home sales have come in lower than seasonally normal.

This awkward behavior is likely due to the Home Buyer tax-credit that expired for closings occurring on or before June 30th 2010.

The best way to actually take a measurement of local market performance is to use a June-July comparison between 2009 and 2010 to mitigate the tax-cut effect of the 2010 period.  When doing so we end up with 382 units sold during the 2009 period compared with 205 home closing during the same period of 2010. This results in a home sales decline of -23% year-over-year.

Despite this very negative comparison of just a single snap shot in time, the 12 months moving average in the chart above tells a completely different story. The moving average shows a declining market from mid 2007 until late early 2009 while showing a stable flattening market for the last 1 1/4 years, which is encouraging. The next few months as we head into the fall and winter, predominantly the slower times of the year for Decatur Al Real Estate Sales, will tell us the whole story.

This month I have also broken down the results for July with an annual comparison across a few different price ranges, despite the huge difference in unit sales for the month this also show a lowering of price in both the high and low end of the market while prices are stable and growing in the middle price ranges.

Given the next few months will be critical in evaluating where our local market is heading post tax-credit be sure to subscribe to our RSS feed to follow our regular updates.

- Jason

Local Decatur Al Home Sales followed through a good performing month of April 2010 with an encore. While a repeat performance is certainly good news, especially given the fact that home sales are significantly above our market lows, the current seasonal sales comparatives are  even better news: Our 178 May 2010 closings represent a 34.8% increase over the same period of 2009.

Seasonal Trend Lines Looking Good

If you take a look at the seasonal trend lines on the following 5 year chart of Athens/Decatur Home Sales, you will note that after 2 years consecutive year-over-year declines, this month’s performance shows a reversal of this trend with a strong upward movement.

Some Caution is Advised

If we have had a few months of this type of seasonal uptick, the story line would be bright indeed. However, May was the first month that we have seen this type of trend in over 2 years, so it is best to keep in mind that one month’s results do not a trend make.

May 2010 home sales were also influenced by the most recent Tax-Credit which expired April 30th for transactions closed by June 30th. Thus this fact is also contributing to our cautiously optimistic market outlook.

If you are active in the local Decatur Al Real Estate market and have market related questions especially concerning any currently listed home please feel free to email me or call me directly at 256-340-0004  …I will be happy to assist in any way possible.

- Jason

Often times the Decatur Alabama Real Estate Market takes a back seat in the press when compared to our nearby neighbor; Huntsville. Yes Madison county is a larger market even when compared to the combined Limestone and Morgan county markets, however our real estate market has often outperformed our larger neighbor to the east; especially over the last few years  during the current financial system turmoil.

Just such an example can be found in the recent Federal Housing Finance Agency’s home price index report, where the Decatur Al Metro Area topped the national list of best performing housing markets ranking 6th in the country, yes ahead of Huntsville which was ranked 8th.  While last years annual Decatur Home Price Appreciation was small at 0.23% it was enough to rank our market among the best in the nation and the 5 year appreciation rate of 17.93% represents a very good long term perspective of Decatur Al Home Prices.

If you look closely at the above Decatur Alabama Housing Prices chart, which covers a 4 year period, you will note that despite the national housing crisis of the last few years, Decatur Home Prices have continued a steady, yet moderate, appreciation trend upward.

Wondering what your own home is worth on today’s market or even if you’re considering buying a new Decatur Home please visit our Recently Sold Decatur Homes page to search recent hyper-local home sale prices. Better yet, before listing your home on the market or making an offer on a new home contact us for a professional Comparative Market Analysis or simply give me a call 256-340-0004 and let’s talk current home prices.

- Jason

Well welcome to my first post on the new Athens / Decatur AL Real Estate Guide. Its that time of month, so I have decided to start with a couple of posts highlighting the details of our local real estate market. Each month I will be posting separately about Sales and Price statistics in the Athens and Decatur areas so if you’re in the market you might want to book-mark the site or simply subscribe to our hyper-local real estate feed so you won’t miss an update.

Wow, what a difference an expiring Home Buyers tax-credit can make on market behavior. Morgan and Limestone county home sales jumped a respectable 19.3% from 150 closing in March to 179 units sold in April of 2010. Even when taking seasonality into account, home sales are up some 24% over both April 2008 and April 2009. Certainly, with the exception of a normal mid-winter slump, the last 6 months of local home sales have certainly illustrated a market  that has stabilized from a decline brought on by the national housing crisis that began in earnest in 2007.

I realize that the above Decatur Homes Sales chart is a bit busy given that it shows 4 1/2 years of statistical data, however I think it is important to see how the local markets in both Athens and Decatur have fared given the national financial crisis. As can be seen from the dark blue moving average illustrated above, local home sales declined significantly through 2007-2008, while during the later part of 2009 and thus far in 2010, we have experienced some stabilization and in fact have seen local home sales move off their 2008 lows.

However the 800 pound gorilla in the room is the difficult question: How is the market going to react over the next few months now that there is no underlining buyers tax-credit to support the demand side of the equation?

Well obviously we don’t know the answer to this question yet. Nevertheless you will want to stay tuned to our monthly market updates because we will know it, all too well, in the very near future and we will keep you updated as events develop right here on these pages. If you have any questions in the meantime don’t hesitate to email or give me a call256-340-0004.

- Jason